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Inverteum Capital's avatar

"In short, the best outcome from here and one that is feasible would be to quickly cut "deals" with friendly Asian countries — Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc."

This seems like the most likely outcome. The irony is that Trump's strategy is basically reconstructing TPP, the free trade agreement Obama negotiated with allies that was never ratified since free trade agreements became politically untouchable after 2016. Trump's approach though is much more politically acceptable to the American public.

If this is what actually happens, Trump deserves credit for more astute political instincts compared to Obama.

William Miller's avatar

I just question if Navarro is around whether these negotiations will go anywhere

Joe Cook's avatar

Trump blew it! Tariff rates based on deficit ratios is senseless. Your best visual is the shifting narrative plot over time. When you can’t explain why the policy is developed in the first place, then you can’t count on a stable basis to keep the policy around. Business confidence suffers and investment stagnates. His approval rating is bound to keep sinking if this keeps up.

I would like thoughtful fair trade with targeted tariff applications. Oh, well!

Alex-GPT's avatar

Excellent read

Sean Pyritz's avatar

Is the exhibit on effective tariff rates just your own analysis? Not really seeing any commentary that paints the tariffs in this way anywhere else. Just would be interested in some of the behind the scenes of those figures

William Miller's avatar

It’s a Bank of America analysis from 2023