The ongoing devastation from the Los Angeles County wildfires — businesses, homes, and schools decimated; dozens dead; damages reaching into the hundreds of billions — is an agonizingly familiar crisis for southern Californians. Though the annually-occurring Santa Ana winds and prolonged drought conditions in this desert-adjacent region were predictable culprits, the fires have also ignited a cascade of speculation ranging from plausible to conspiratorial.
Some point to political priorities like DEI initiatives rendering the fire department incompetent, or legislation around saving a rare fish species (Delta Smelt) leading to the water shortage as being at fault. Others blame climate change. Alongside the list of mainstream theories dominating public discourse lie some unsettling yet underexplored explanations; one such theory is arson. The data supporting this theory is compelling, as are the anecdotes.
Malignant arson in LA
Data from Cal Fire indicates that 95% of California’s wildfires stem from human activity. In a recent study led by data scientists analyzing more than 150,000 unsolved wildfire cases across all Western states, 80% were found to be human-caused. Although the study found that vehicles and equipment (i.e., downed power lines) are likely the number one human-driven culprit, potentially causing 21% of wildfires analyzed, it also found that some 18% of fires — a significant and growing portion — are the result of human ignition whether from smoking, gunfire, campfires, or indeed, arson.1
Comparing arson incidents per capita between Los Angeles and other populous Western cities with similar climates, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, reveals notable differences. According to data from the Los Angeles Fire Department, in 2021, Los Angeles experienced approximately 3,744 intentional fires. With a population of about 3.9 million, this equates to roughly 96 arson incidents per 100,000 residents. In contrast, data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program indicates that Phoenix had an arson rate of about 11.56 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2019 while Las Vegas reported an arson rate of approximately 35.29 incidents per 100,000 residents in the same year.2
Even more disconcerting are the eyewitness accounts of arson throughout LA recently. Andrew Huberman’s January 9th post on Instagram shows a group of individuals convening to deliberately start a fire near Santa Monica:
This wasn’t a one-off. On January 17th, eight individuals facing arson charges were arrested, with bail amounts ranging from $45,000 to over a million, after being accused of setting fire to parks, dumpsters, and even Christmas trees. That same day, investigators taped off and labeled a path leading up to a hiking trail that overlooks the Pacific Palisades a “crime scene,” where they think the Palisades Fires may have started. Then last Monday, a “transient” (homeless) suspect was arrested for starting a fire in Griffith Park after witnesses reported seeing him ignite a blaze near the Boy Scout Trail.
In fact, Los Angeles police have made dozens more arrests directly linked to arson and looting. Among these arrests, one strikingly bizarre case in Woodland Hills involved actor Brian J. White and neighbors detaining a suspect attempting to start fires with a flamethrower. Another case, in Pacoima, featured an individual who admitted to setting a tree ablaze simply because he “liked the smell of burning leaves.” According to LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell, one arrestee explicitly stated that they enjoyed “causing chaos and destruction.”
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